Enhertu

Enhertu shows high clinical innovation in second-line metastatic breast cancer

Conclusion: Enhertu achieves impressive clinical innovation versus Kadcyla, the current SOC, in second-line HER2+ metastatic breast cancer, and in the newly defined HER2-low metastatic breast cancer population at second or later lines of therapy versus chemo.

Enhertu (trastuzumab deruxtecan, AstraZeneca) was approved[1] in December 2019 for HER2+ unresectable or metastatic breast cancer patients who have received multiple prior anti-HER2 treatments. In May 2022 the FDA approved Enhertu in second line HER2+ breast cancer, based on results from the DESTINY-Breast03[2] trial, which show impressive efficacy in the second-line setting in HER2+ unresectable or metastatic breast cancer.

In these patients, Enhertu boasts a significant increase in progression-free survival compared to the current standard of care (SOC), trastuzumab emtansine (Kadcyla) (25.1 vs. 9.6 months), and a notable improvement in overall response rate (79.7% vs. 43.6%). Coupled with a hazard ratio for death of 0.55, Enhertu appears poised to take over from Kadcyla in second-line HER2+ metastatic breast cancer.

The waterfall chart above shows that Enhertu’s improvements in efficacy far outweigh its slightly worse side effect profile when compared to Kadcyla. The jump in efficacy, as well as its trickle-down effect on mortality and morbidity, deliver a strong clinical innovation score of 25.9%.  Drugs with clinical innovation above 10% usually dominate their segments; Enhertu’s improvement in this population is similar to Tagrisso’s advantage in second-line EGFR+ NSCLC.

We expect Enhertu to dominate treatment in this setting within two years.

Moreover, the FDA recently granted Enhertu Breakthrough Therapy Designation in patients with unresectable or metastatic HER2-low (IHC 1+ or IHC 2+/ISH-negative) breast cancer who received a prior systemic therapy in the metastatic setting or developed disease recurrence within six months of completing adjuvant chemotherapy. HR+ patients should additionally have received or be ineligible for endocrine therapy.

The DESTINY-Breast04[3] trial studied Enhertu versus investigator’s choice chemotherapy (e.g., eribulin) in 2L+ HER2-low metastatic breast cancer. Enhertu offers a significant increase in progression-free survival (9.9 vs. 5.1 months) and median overall survival (23.4 vs. 16.8 months) compared to chemo, and a dramatic improvement in overall response rate (52.3% vs. 16.3%). This trial could portend a paradigm shift in breast cancer classification, targeting the entirety of HER2 expression.

The waterfall chart below shows that Enhertu’s improvements in efficacy in HER2-low patients, and resultant impact on mortality and morbidity, offer strong clinical innovation of 14% compared to chemotherapy.

Enhertu is a transformative advance for HER2-low metastatic breast cancer patients, and should dominate the space in the near future.

[1] https://www.daiichisankyo.com/media/press_release/detail/index_3159.html

[2] Cortes et al. 2022

[3] Modi et al. 2022

Enhertu: A New Leader in Later-Line Breast Cancer

Conclusion: Enhertu achieves an impressive clinical innovation score for its substantial efficacy improvements over the current SOC (trastuzumab + capecitabine) for adults with HER2+ metastatic breast cancer who have failed multiple prior therapies.

Enhertu (trastuzumab deruxtecan, Daiichi-Sankyo and AstraZeneca) was approved in December 2019 for HER2+ unresectable or metastatic breast cancer patients who have received multiple prior anti-HER2 treatments. It boasts a significant increase in progression-free survival compared to the current standard of care (SOC), trastuzumab + capecitabine (16.4 vs. 5.6 months), as well as a notable improvement in overall response rate (60.9% vs. 22.8%). While survival data is not yet mature, even the most conservative of estimates sees Enhertu winning the day for HER2+ patients eligible for a third or later line of treatment.

The waterfall chart below shows that Enhertu’s improvements in efficacy far outweigh its higher cost and slightly worse side effect profile when compared to the current SOC. The jump in efficacy, as well as its trickle-down effect on mortality and morbidity, deliver a strong clinical innovation score of 26%.

drivers correct.JPG

We expect Enhertu to dominate treatment in this setting within two years. Analysts’ estimates of peak sales around $2.5 billion are reasonable.