Our Take — Predictions Based on Historical Analogs

Looking at historical launches provides evidence that a new drug’s Clinical Innovation (the magnitude of its improvement relative to the standard of care) strongly influences the patient share it achieves. Utilizing this knowledge, we can examine recently launched and developmental drugs and give our take on their commercial promise.

Here’s how clinical innovation translates to a new drug’s success:

Level of clinical innovation

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Chronic Disease

Oncology

Even though oncology is a unique therapeutic area, the level of Clinical Innovation offered by an oncology drug also affects its ability to compete for patient share.