In order to predict patient share accurately in the modern, reimbursement‑restricted environment, Equinox adjusts its prediction of prescribers' preferences by a "reimbursement factor" that reflects the effect of payer resistance. Our analysis of 19 recent drug launches implies that payer resistance is a function of:

• Clinical innovation
• Annual drug cost
• Prevalence of diagnosed patients

When this factor is included in our prediction of patient share, we are able to account for 85% of the variance seen:

Actual vs. ESP-predicted share for 19 drugs launched since 2001