ESP-based forecasts contain the Equinox Share Predictor (ESP), a regression equation that derives the peak share of patients that a new agent will capture as a function of clinical advantage and competitive intensity (i.e., the number of existing competitors).

Advantages of Equinox Share Predictor

• Based on actual market performance of drugs launched in recent years
• Strong explanatory power—adjusted R² = 0.81
• Takes into account preferences of all customers: physicians, patients, and payers
• Can be executed quickly
• Costs much less than conducting primary market research to generate share estimates
• Provides a strong foundation for later adding a market research base

Objective Assessment of Patient Share

Clients use ESP-based forecasts when an objective assessment of patient share is critical but time and resources are constrained. These situations include evaluating early-stage R&D candidates and in-licensing opportunities.

Predicted share of patients is based on Equinox Group’s detailed analysis of the agent’s clinical characteristics (compared with those of the gold standard) and the outlook for developmental competitors. Clients can change clinical or competitor assumptions to estimate share under alternative conditions.

ESP forecasts include thoroughly researched and well-documented estimates of the size of the current and future patient populations (prevalence, diagnosed, and drug treated) for each of the seven major countries. By combining the peak-year share forecast with the size of the drug-treated population, drug price, and related commercial assumptions (e.g., compliance, ex-manufacturer discount), the client can easily assemble a defensible estimate of an agent’s revenue outlook.

Sample ESP Forecast Outputs Sheet