• Unique analysis, modeling, and forecasting techniques to evaluate the commercial outlook for drugs in R&D
  
• Integrated and dynamic market forecasts that provide context for product forecasts
  
• Customized predictive patient flow maps to boost marketing performance
• Extensive market research experience, including quantitative/qualitative physician interviews, web-based surveys, and conjoint analysis
• Scientific expertise coupled with best-in-class product forecasting to support investors’ due diligence process, accurately assessing pharmaceutical and biotechnology opportunities
• Experience working with 19 of the top 20 R&D-based pharmaceutical companies
• More than 10 years developing, applying, and refining specialized forecasting tools
• Thorough understanding of the clinical and commercial factors in more than 200 indications across all major therapeutic areas
  
• Professional staff with outstanding modeling and research skills
  
• Strong international experience with multilingual capability

Equinox Group focuses on evaluating the commercial outlook for drugs in R&D, with special emphasis on product and total market forecasting. We offer a variety of tools to address clients' needs, and can assemble these tools to meet your specific requirements. Our goal is to provide you with an objective external view of the commercial potential of your product across key patient populations.

Equinox Group’s user-friendly forecasts offer analyses girded by thorough research and logical, transparent assumptions, giving you an effective decision-making tool with which you can develop, explain, and defend a view and a product's future with confidence.

Equinox Forecasting Models Enable Clients to Answer “What If…?”

• Our agent’s launch is delayed by two years
• An important competitor is pulled from clinical development
• New data for our agent indicate that:
  • Symptom relief advantage is lower than previously thought
  • Onset of action is faster than expected
  • Incidence of a specific side effect is double the initial estimate
  • Our agent slows the progression of the targeted disease

Forecasting Models Customized to Meet Client Needs

Equinox forecasting models can help you:

• Clarify the impact of developmental competitors on your agent through opinion-leader interviews
• Quantify reimbursement issues with payer interviews
• Measure the value of label, publications, off-label strategies
• Evaluate the impact of multiple dosage forms
• Make epidemiology dynamic, reflecting market expansion attributable to therapy improvements
• Estimate promotional spending required to achieve share
• Revise forecasts quickly given new assumptions about clinical attributes, price, and launch dates for your agent and each developmental competitor

Range of Forecasting Model Options

We offer several options for the level of both forecasting effort and patient-population detail. Our approaches involve transparent patient-based forecast models prepared in Microsoft Excel that are dynamic and sensitive to the clinical attributes of your agent’s profile in each patient population. Options for the level of forecasting effort that Equinox offers are as follows:

• Unmet Need Analysis is a tool Equinox has developed to assess a new drug's clinical attributes in order to identify the opportunities for innovation within a disease target.

• Equinox Share Predictor (ESP) is a validated forecast engine based on actual commercial results of drugs launched in recent years. The ESP algorithm has excellent predictive powers with an adjusted R-squared of 81%.

• Competition Module allows the client to include assumptions about the success of other new competitors and measure the impact that those competitors will have on the client’s agent.

• ESP-Based Market Forecasts are dynamic models that project patient share, treated patients, total prescriptions, revenue, and other measures for each of the major products and classes, both existing and emerging, throughout the forecast period.

• Market-Research-Based Forecasts offer the same total market picture as the ESP-based models, but rely on primary market research to guarantee that sensitivity to product attributes reflects the preferences of key customer groups (usually physicians, but also potentially payers and patients) in individual country markets.