Ellen Bernstein, Walter Brooks, and David Godolphin, the three founding principals of Equinox Group, have worked together for 20 years. In total, the three principals have more than 50 years of experience consulting to the world’s major pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. Using elements from decision analysis, microeconomics, statistics and probability theory, and market research, the three principals have developed methods to estimate the range of market potential for a new drug based on alternative assumptions about its clinical performance. These techniques allow companies to measure the commercial risk in a new drug’s clinical uncertainty.

Before forming Equinox Group in 1995, the principals were the senior management of Decision Resources’ pharmaceutical practice, where they spearheaded the development of the Pharmacor multisponsor programs, which produced in-depth disease-focused reports. They also created and produced the original DecisionBase multiclient study, a model that compared the commercial potential of competing R&D candidate projects in 50 indications.

What We Do

Forecast the Outlook for New Drugs

Equinox Group, a leader in the art of new drug forecasting, places special emphasis on product and total market forecasting. Our forecast models offer the following unique features:

• Provide patient shares based on valid and transparent forecast engine
• Change patient shares automatically in response to new information about an agent’s clinical attributes, launch date, rate of uptake, and price, among other factors
• Reflect impact of new competitors rationally and dynamically
• Allow users to easily conduct rapid updates and robust sensitivity analysis
• Based on epidemiology to capture potential in underserved markets (e.g., obesity), but calibrated to sales audit data to ensure reality of current market

Map Patient Flow to Boost Marketing Productivity

Equinox Group’s Predictive Patient Flow Maps quantify the number of patients at critical points in the diagnosis, treatment, and referral process. Geared to enhance marketing efforts, our patient flow maps offer these key benefits:

• Estimate the number of patients in each disease phase
• Identify physician segments for targeted marketing
• Help craft messages appropriate to each physician segment
• Inform efficient sales force deployment
• Identify and quantify leverage points and valuable new treatment options
• Provide implications for commercial opportunity

Conduct Primary Market Research

Equinox Group has extensive experience conducting primary market research with physicians, payers, and patients. We use various methods and techniques to gather information from these key groups, including:

• In-person interviews (one-on-one and focus groups)
• Telephone interviews
• Web-based surveys
• Conjoint analysis
• Collaboration with primary market research companies, integrating the results of their research into our forecasts
• Multilingual capabilities